Tarique Rahman to become Bangladesh PM, Hasina’s fate hangs in the balance
After meticulous preparations for a free and fair election, which turned into reality with a festive electoral exercise, Bangladesh went to polls on 12 February, where the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) established a landslide victory. One of the oldest political parties in the South Asian nation, BNP won over 200 constituencies in the 300-member National Parliament (Jatiya Sansad), where Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh secured around 70 seats.
The country’s pioneer political party, Awami League, was out of the race as its activities were banned by the interim government in Dhaka, while its chairperson and former premier Sheikh Hasina fled to India on 5 August 2024. The Muslim-majority country of 170 million people has been ruled by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus since 8 August, soon after Hasina’s sudden departure.
The 13th Jatiya Sansad polls, conducted amid tight security and improved technological monitoring, witnessed a voter turnout of around 60% . The polling was largely peaceful, and registered voters exercised their franchise — otherwise unusual in Bangladesh, which has continued to witness controversial polls with much lower voter turnout.
Nearly 2,000 candidates belonging to 51 political parties, as well as independent contestants, were in the fray. For the first time in 35 years, no one was killed in election-related violence on polling day, even though seven people died around polling centres across the country due to natural causes. One polling officer collapsed while on duty in Brahmanbaria, a former BNP leader died in Khulna, and five voters died due to illness in Dhaka, Chittagong, Gaibandha, Kishoreganj, and Manikganj.
Unaware of developments in Bangladesh until polling was over, many Indian news outlets have woken up to appreciate Bangladeshi voters for their decision to prefer the relatively secular BNP rather than Islamist hardliner Jamaat candidates. Interestingly, the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by youths who took the lead in the anti-Hasina movement during the July–August 2024 mass uprising, allied with Jamaat for the polls and was limited to a single-digit outcome.
The Union government in New Delhi maintained cordial relations with the seemingly ‘liberal and democratic’ party in Bangladesh. Even when Tarique Rahman’s mother and former prime minister Khaleda Zia was suffering from a serious illness, Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly expressed concern and offered necessary support. The BNP was quick to respond with sincere gratitude.
When Begum Zia passed away, New Delhi sent Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar to attend her funeral in Dhaka. During his brief visit, Jaishankar met the bereaved family and handed Tarique Rahman a personal condolence letter from PM Modi.
The Indian Prime Minister was also the first global leader to congratulate him on the convincing electoral victory and expressed interest in working with Dhaka to strengthen multifaceted relations between the two neighbouring countries. On the ground, Tarique Rahman maintained a sober stance towards New Delhi and did not instigate any kind of anti-India messaging.
Critics argue that the election in Bangladesh was not inclusive, as it prevented the participation of the Awami League, a major political player before independence in 1971. However, the last three general elections held in 2014, 2018, and 2024 witnessed boycotts by BNP leaders and alleged rigging by Awami League workers, where voter turnout was too low.
Once an electoral ally of the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh has now emerged as the principal opposition party in Parliament, paving the way for Islamist forces to enter mainstream political space.
The Bangladesh Election Commission and the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus thanked voters and the public for a peaceful election conducted in a festive environment. Often criticised for mishandling various Bangladesh-related issues by pro-Hasina activists and sympathisers, Yunus stated that spontaneous voter participation, responsible conduct by political parties, restraint shown by candidates, and professionalism of institutions involved collectively demonstrated that Bangladesh’s commitment to democracy remains unwavering.
As expected, the ousted premier Hasina denounced the election as a farce. She demanded the resignation of the Yunus administration and called for fresh polling in a free, fair, and inclusive manner.
India has expressed concern over the sharp demographic decline of religious minorities in the country, where Hindus constituted around 23% of the population in 1947. This has now diminished to less than 8%, as violence, forced conversions, and other religious repercussions have continued irrespective of the rulers in Dhaka.
Even during Hasina’s second tenure as premier (2009 to 2024), atrocities on Hindu families and places of worship could not be prevented, compelling many to gradually leave their country of birth. However, Hasina successfully misled a larger section of India’s Hindu population with a victim card, whereas Hindus in Bangladesh were the actual victims.
Modi’s congratulatory telephone call to the PM-in-waiting changed perceptions about Bangladesh in India and influenced sections of the media fraternity. For now, it is Tarique Rahman’s moment, though he faces the challenge of leading a country with deep anti-Hindu sentiments, alongside subdued coverage of Hasina, who has taken temporary shelter in India, faces a death sentence in her home country, and is under extradition pressure, yet continues making political statements.
Is she a brave lady or a reckless unwanted guest for India? Only time will tell.