Hasina’s ouster unlikely to affect India-Bangladesh ties

After Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s unceremonious ouster from power on August 5, many quarters in India have flagged concerns that the current political turbulence and growing economic instability in Bangladesh could adversely impact New Delhi’s exports and trade and the ongoing infrastructure development projects in the neighbouring country. Amid all the dramatic developments in Bangladesh, the Indian government was quick to adapt itself according to the changing political scenario. India was among the first foreign nations to recognize the interim administration of Bangladesh headed by Novel laureate Mohammad Yunus.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his congratulatory message to the interim administration’s Chief Adviser Yunus noted that New Delhi would continue to support Bangladesh in its development endeavours and stand with its people. It appears that the message has gone down well with Bangladesh’s political elites affiliated with the new political dispensation. Reports from Dhaka indicate that the interim administration has pledged to honour all bilateral agreements concluded during Hasina’s rule. Bangladesh’s intelligentsia too underscored the importance of maintaining friendly relations between the two South Asian neighbours in the vicissitudes of political change given their shared history and close geographical proximity.

Increasing Development Cooperation

Bangladesh is the largest development partner of India and about one-fourth of New Delhi’s Line of Credit (LoC) commitments are directed towards Dhaka. In the last eight years, India has extended three LoCs amounting to $7.35 billion for the development of infrastructure in different sectors including roads, railways, shipping, and ports. The Government of India (GoI) has also funded High Impact Community Development Projects (HICDPs) in Bangladesh, supporting the construction of student hostels, academic buildings, skill development institutions, cultural centers and orphanages. At the recent bilateral summit, both countries agreed that a new Framework Agreement for Development Partnership would enhance the scope of joint projects and programmes aligned with the priorities of the Bangladesh government and people.

Capacity Building and Youth Development Cooperation 

The bilateral capacity-building efforts incorporate civil services, judicial officers, police and other specialized services, developing a robust and efficient administrative framework for Bangladesh. India has reportedly offered 350 training slots for Bangladeshi police officers. As a key partner in the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) programme, Bangladesh sends nearly 800 participants each year benefiting from the ITEC courses. The two sides also agreed to accelerate their partnership in sectors that promote youth development through education, skilling, entrepreneurship, technology, sports, and creative and cultural industries. Reports say in 2024 alone, 1000 student visas have been issued to Bangladeshi students aspiring to study in India under the self-financing scheme.

Boosting Bilateral Trade and Investment  

In the arena of trade, Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia and it’s second largest in Asia. Reports say Bangladesh exported goods worth around $2 billion to India during the fiscal year 2022-23. In their bids to promote mutual prosperity, both countries agreed to broaden trade and investment linkages, including through early operationalization of the two Special Economic Zones (SEZs) offered by Bangladesh to India in Mongla and Mirsharai, and opening of new border hats enhancing trade facilitation. India and Bangladesh have also pledged to encourage and support their private sector to explore new investment opportunities in each other’s priority areas of economic development. 

One of the most important decisions made during the June bilateral summit was to start negotiations on the proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The agreement aims to increase economic interactions, streamline the trade processes, harmonise tariff duties, and promote investment between the two countries. India has also assured Bangladesh of supporting with the supply of much-needed essential commodities based on availability. On June 26 this year, former Bangladesh State Minister for Commerce Ahsanul Islam Titu reportedly announced that Dhaka is set to sign an agreement with India to import essential commodities. He added that the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh would be signing the deal on behalf of the government.

Bangladesh is heavily dependent on India for numerous food items and any disruption in the supply chain adversely impacts the country’s market. Indian analysts hold that New Delhi’s outreach on economic cooperation and supply of essential commodities are parts of her strategy to leverage the bilateral relationship to address Bangladesh’s ongoing economic challenges, including high inflation. With the prospect of Beijing offering a stimulus economic package to Bangladesh, New Delhi is walking the extra mile to maintain its influence in the region.

Healthcare Initiatives, Introduction of e-Medical Visas and Facilitating Cross-Border Travel   

In a significant step towards easing healthcare access, New Delhi has announced the introduction of an e-medical visa facility for Bangladeshi nationals seeking medical treatment in Indian hospitals. This initiative will ensure that they receive timely medical care in India.  As per reports, in 2023, around 16 lakh visas were issued to Bangladeshis and it is estimated that about 20-30% of them arrived in India for medical treatment.

India has also decided to open a new Assistant High Commission (AHC) in Rangpur, the divisional headquarters of northern Bangladesh, to facilitate expeditious consular and visa services. India’s move to set up an AHC in Rangpur reflects its growing engagement in Bangladesh. This will be the fifth AHC in addition to the ones in Rajshahi, Khukna, Sylhet and Chittagong. At the New Delhi bilateral summit, Prime Minister Modi described people-to-people contacts as the foundation of the friendly ties between the two South Asian neighbours.      

Joint Border Management

The two countries share a large land boundary of 4,096.7 km, which is the longest among India’s neighbouring countries. The India-Bangladesh border is also one of the most crime-infested international borders in the world. Therefore, the effective management of this border is a key aspect of India’s multifaceted ties with Bangladesh. The border sentinels of the two countries—India’s Border Security Force (BSF) and Bangladesh Border Guards (BGB), and other government agencies have been actively cooperating on issues such as law enforcement, anti-corruption, cross-border terrorism, combating multiple transnational crimes including illicit drug trafficking, smuggling of contraband items, circulation of counterfeit currency and human trafficking.

In their efforts to maintain peace and security along the international border, the BSF and BGB personnel have regularly been engaged in talks at various levels. Reports say on June 24, the 20^th IsG BSF-Region Commanders BGB Level Border Coordination Conference was held at Kolkata to enhance bilateral cooperation and promote mutual understanding on crucial border security issues of the two countries. Acknowledging the gravity of the persisting security challenges, the BSF and BGB reached a consensus on several key measures to combat transnational crimes efficiently. Meanwhile, the BSF in its bids to thwart illegal migration from Bangladesh has issued a high alert across all its formations along the international border in the wake of violent protest demonstrations and volatile political situation in the neighbouring country.

Collaboration in Space Technology

In a major move to take the existing friendly bilateral ties to new heights, India has agreed to collaborate with Bangladesh to launch a satellite for the neighbouring country to meet its scientific and humanitarian needs. On June 22, a MoU between the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACE) and Department of Space, GoI, and the Ministry of Posts, Telecommunication and Information Technology, Government of Bangladesh was signed for collaboration on a Joint Small Satellite Project. Indian Prime Modi noted that the India-Bangladesh Maitree (Friendship) Satellite will add a new dimension to bilateral cooperation.