Can BNP’s Tarique Rahman regime in Dhaka turn friendly to India?
Guwahati: As Bangladesh has constituted a new government under the leadership of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) following a largely fair and peaceful national election on 12 February 2026, the people of eastern India—the region that virtually envelops the country except for a few kilometers bordering Myanmar and the Bay of Bengal, hope for a progressive regime in Dhaka, enjoying political stability and pursuing economic development for over 170 million people in the South Asian nation.
The Muslim-majority country continues to be a source of concern for the northeastern states, particularly Assam, for at least two reasons: unabated influx of migrants and regional security challenges affecting millions of indigenous families in their homeland.
The region’s land connectivity with the rest of India is often highlighted by some motivated Bangladeshi elements, who point to the challenges surrounding the Siliguri corridor, popularly known as the chicken’s neck. Some even fantasize about incorporating a large part of eastern India to establish a “greater Banglasthan.” They argue that an affluent nation should have a coastline, a fertile valley with water bodies, and a range of mountains, at times extending the dream to parts of Bhutan and Tibet. Others believe Bangladesh, which nurtures a single linguistic identity (Bengali), should now attain mono-religion characteristics (read Islam).
The election, held in a festive atmosphere rarely seen in Bangladesh, recorded around 60 percent voter turnout, giving the BNP a commanding 212 seats in the 300-member Parliament, with an additional 50 women members to be added to the Jatiya Sansad. Sixty-year-old Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and former President Ziaur Rahman, led the mainstream party in the electoral battle without resorting to anti-India rhetoric, a tactic often used to gain instant popularity among Bangladeshi voters. Even after taking oath as the new premier, Rahman remained composed and emphasized a holistic approach to relations with neighboring countries, including India.
Anti-India rhetoric gained momentum after the ousted premier Sheikh Hasina took shelter in New Delhi, where she, along with thousands of Awami League leaders, continues to seek political asylum following her sudden departure on 5 August 2024. The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, repeatedly requested Hasina’s extradition, as she faces a death sentence from a Bangladeshi tribunal, but received no positive response from India. PM Rahman, meanwhile, avoided aggressive comments against Hasina, who described the 13th Jatiya Sansad as a farce, emphasizing that her repatriation should be addressed through legal channels.
When Bangladesh drew international attention due to a series of atrocities against religious minority families in recent years, four non-Muslim candidates, including two Hindus—Goyeshwar Chandra Roy and Nitai Roy Chowdhury, won in the last election, defeating Jamaat candidates. Two other minority representatives, Saching Pru and Dipen Dewan, were also nominated by the BNP. PM Rahman included Roy Chowdhury and Dewan in his ministry. Hindus in Bangladesh now constitute around 13 million people, roughly 8 percent of the population, down from over 22 percent at the time of partition.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi promptly congratulated the BNP leadership for their decisive victory, becoming the first global leader to call Tarique Rahman and express interest in working with Dhaka for mutual benefits. The BNP leadership welcomed Modi’s gesture, stating that Dhaka looks forward to engaging constructively with New Delhi to advance a multifaceted relationship guided by mutual respect, sensitivity to each other’s concerns, and a shared commitment to regional peace, stability, and prosperity. Modi also invited PM Rahman and his family to visit India at a mutually convenient time. Though he could not attend Rahman’s swearing-in ceremony on 17 February, Modi sent Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla to represent India at the event held at the southern courtyard of Jatiya Sansad Bhawan in Dhaka.
Earlier, in his final televised address as the caretaker government’s chief adviser, Yunus described the election “not merely as a power transfer but the beginning of a new journey for Bangladesh’s democracy.” The globally acclaimed microcredit innovator and social business promoter reminded citizens that the interim government started working from minus—not even zero as the country had been left in rubble by the former ruler (read Hasina). Yunus reiterated the enormous opportunities for Bangladesh, particularly through regional cooperation with Nepal, Bhutan, and the northeastern states of India. He appealed to Bangladeshis and political leaders alike to uphold and strengthen the momentum for peace, progress, and reforms with unity in the days ahead.
Despite the positive developments, concerns for India in general and Assam in particular remain. Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamist party that opposed the 1971 liberation movement siding with West Pakistan, has emerged as the main opposition party in the Jatiya Sansad for the first time in history. The Jamaat led an alliance of 11 parties to win 77 seats, with the Shafiqur Rahman-led party securing 68 constituencies, notably in many West Bengal-bordering constituencies. Meanwhile, the newly formed National Citizen Party, created by students who orchestrated the July–August 2024 uprising against Hasina, allied with the Jamaat and won six seats.
Political observers suggest that a potential threat is looming for India’s landlocked northeastern region, requiring careful attention by New Delhi and recalibration of bilateral ties with its troubled neighbor.