Snowless Himalayas worry experts as El Nino brings unusually dry winter

New Delhi: High mountain passes in the northwest Himalayas are eerily bare this winter, with barely any snow to be seen. Skiers hoping to slalom down white slopes are disappointed, and tourists are calling off trips to hill destinations.

The El Nino effect is playing out across the region, causing an unusually dry winter with no immediate relief in sight.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has confirmed that 2023 was the warmest year on record, and the warming El Nino event is likely to further fuel the heat in 2024.

This phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical Pacific are higher than average, and there is a simultaneous weakening of trade winds.

The lack of snowfall is not just a temporary blip; it is affecting the entire annual cycle of snow in the Himalayas.

"If it continues longer, it can have a huge cascading effect on socio-economic benefits," glaciologist and Himalayan researcher A N Dimri said.

"If you don't get (enough) snow, you don't get replenishment of water, it will impact agriculture, your health and can, in turn, impact your economy," he said.

The Border Roads Organisation (BRO), which usually struggles with snow clearance operations to keep the strategically located 11,800 feet altitude Zojila Pass open, has had it easier this year.

"Zojila Pass connects Kashmir with Ladakh and is important for maintaining the supply chain logistics for the troops posted in forward areas in Ladakh. Generally, it has a minimum of 30-40 feet of snow around this time but there is barely six to seven feet of snow now," said Lt Gen Rajeev Chaudhry, former BRO director general.

"It is possible the pass will remain open for traffic for a week more because of less snow," he added.

The picture is no different in Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. In Kashmir, popular tourist destinations such as Gulmarg and Pahalgam have received almost no snow, while the hills across the region have below-average snowfall, disappointing tourists and locals alike.

Amateur meteorologist 'Weatherman Shubham' posted a photo of Kedarnath temple and its surroundings devoid of snow on social media, along with the caption: "Bizarre dry winters so far over hills due to prolonged dry spell & nothing major expected from upcoming Western Disturbance on 9-10th Jan."

The unusually long dry spell means that places that would ideally have a thick blanket of snow by now have hardly any. After the initial winter precipitation in November, and at some places in early December, there has been no precipitation at all since.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) blames the lack of Western Disturbances (WDs) for the dry spell and says almost no major snowfall is likely until mid-January, even with the expected January 9-10 WD bringing little relief.

WDs are a series of cyclonic storms that originate in the Mediterranean region and bring much-needed moisture to the Himalayas.

While the northwest plains of Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi-NCR have experienced their share of foggy "cold" and "severe cold" days, there have been no "cold wave" conditions yet.

"Since December, there has been no active WD over northwest India... this resulted in less than normal precipitation," explained IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

Temperatures, he added, are above normal during the El Nino period. "But more than that, the absence of WDs meant that there was no clouding and that led to increased temperatures (in the higher reaches of the Himalayas)."

According to an April 2015 study published in the Review of Geophysics, WD snowfall in December, January, and February is crucial for establishing and sustaining regional snowpack, replenishing water resources. Spring melt from the snowpack is the major source of runoff to northern Indian rivers and is vital for various hydrological processes.

Drawing a connection between WDs and El Nino, climate scientist Raghu Murtugudde from the Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay said, "WDs have had a decreasing trend for a while, so the low precipitation is consistent with that. During an El Nino, the cold winds come from the northwest and the cold temperature remains over northern and north-central India. This means dry cold winds and thus less precipitation."