Climate Change in the Third Pole & future of South Asia

The Third Pole is a vast region that stretches across the Tibetan Plateau and the Hindu Kush Himalayas. Known as the Water Tower of Asia, it is the third largest reservoir of freshwater in the world, following only the Arctic and Antarctic. Its vast expanse of glaciers and snowfields in this region significantly contributes to the Earth's hydrological cycle, acting as a major source of freshwater. These glaciers feed 10 major rivers of Asia – providing water to billions across South and Southeast Asia and China and fertile soil that produces food for 3 billion people. The stability of these glaciers is crucial for the sustenance of these rivers, agricultural productivity, and overall climate stability – not just in South Asia, but globally.

Today the region faces threats ranging from melting glaciers and rising heat to anthropogenic threats posed by development, demanding urgent action for the future of Asia and the world. Climate change is warming the region faster than the rest of the world – already reaching 1.3 degrees of warming. This has led to accelerated glacial melt, altering precipitation patterns and affecting the systems that support biodiversity, soil regeneration and water-cycling ecosystem services. Deforestation, driven by agricultural expansion and illegal logging, threatens the rich forest cover, disrupting habitats and further accelerating the loss of these key services while leading to accelerated human-wildlife conflict.

Threatening the future of South Asia

A report by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) warns that with a business-as-usual approach to climate change, at least one-third of the Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers within the Third Pole could disappear by 2100. This translates to a significant decrease in freshwater availability, which will severely jeopardize food security and the livelihood of millions. By 2050, South Asia is projected to lose $518 billion and by 2070 be $997 billion due to climate change and in the past twenty years, nearly 750 million people in the region have been affected by natural disasters. 90% of economic losses caused by natural disasters in the region are uninsured.

The destabilization and warming of the Third Pole is likely to accelerate these effects, by amplifying the cycle of loss and damage from extreme weather events, and through rising evapotranspiration creating a regional water paradox: too much water but not enough to last the entire year from monsoon to monsoon. These changes are further amplified by the rapid loss of critical ecosystems in the region through commercial agricultural expansion, infrastructure development and resource extraction. India’s Eastern Himalaya, which encompasses the Northeast states, lost over 100,000 hectares of forest between 2019 and 2021 according to the Forest Survey of India. By 2100, modelling suggests that only 10% of India’s Himalayas will be covered in dense forest.

With less forest cover and emerging desertification of large tracts of land, the meltwater runs off quickly, leading to floods during the peak melts and water scarcity during dry seasons. This disrupts agricultural cycles, alters land use patterns that have previously been followed for centuries and increases the risk of desertification – in India’s Eastern Himalaya, around 12% of the total land is desertified based on data from an ISRO study in 2016. Such an erratic water cycle again poses a severe threat to food security in the region.

Highly dependent on agriculture which is predominantly small-scale and rain-fed, the communities within the Eastern Himalayas face the brunt of changing weather patterns. The severe droughts cripple crop yields, while the floods devastate farmland and infrastructure. The resulting food insecurity fuels poverty, malnutrition, and social unrest even into the deep recesses of the region, leading further to the vulnerability of communities dependent on subsistence farming and traditional ways of life. These communities often lack the resources to adapt to changing weather patterns and water scarcity. Loss of income due to declining agricultural productivity would have the effect of pushing them into poverty and food insecurity. The World Bank estimates that climate change could push over 100 million people within the particularly vulnerable South Asian countries into poverty by 2030 - without climate-smart interventions.

Charting the future of South Asia

As these effects accelerate, ecosystem protection and restoration in a region like the Third Pole, with a highly nature-dependent and affected economy, becomes a critical means of mitigating economic loss: e.g. forest restoration upstream reducing flood damage downstream, protecting agricultural productivity and yields by moving towards climate-resilient forms of agriculture. 67-68% of South Asia’s youth live in rural areas and face high levels of unemployment because of limited opportunities and skills. Economic incentives that provide skill-based training for green entrepreneurship and support for MSMEs along the forestry and regenerative agriculture value chain are critical in building businesses that are both profitable while restoring the environment.

The Bonn Challenge, a global effort to restore 350 million hectares of degraded and deforested land by 2030, has specifically recognized the Himalayas as a high-priority region for restoration. Restoring degraded land that encompasses practices like soil and water conservation techniques, promoting sustainable grazing, reducing overexploitation and regulating extractive industrial expansion are measures that not only improve land fertility for agriculture but can also enhance groundwater reserves within the Eastern Himalayan expanse.

Reforestation efforts, particularly focusing on native indigenous tree species, play a crucial role in carbon capture, reducing soil erosion, and regulating local climate patterns. Promoting climate-smart agriculture that uses water efficiently, improves soil health, and utilizes drought-resistant crop varieties can significantly boost resilience. Forestry programs that promote sustainable logging practices, community-managed forest models, and financial incentives for forest conservation, while developing measures that tackle the growing deforestation and illegal trade, can contribute significantly. These initiatives not only support ecosystem health and water security but also provide livelihood opportunities through sustainable timber harvesting, ecotourism, and benefits from non-timber forest products, such as medicinal herbs.

Sustainable water management practices are critical. The Asian Development Bank estimates that South Asia needs to invest over $30 billion annually in its water and sanitation sector by 2030 to meet growing demand. Rainwater harvesting, improved irrigation techniques, and promotion of water-efficient crops can significantly reduce water usage and improve agricultural productivity. Investing in water storage infrastructure like dams and rainwater harvesting systems can help store excess water during peak melt and distribute it efficiently during dry seasons.  Additionally, the building of community reservoirs can store excess water during monsoons to buffer against droughts.

Preserving and protecting the Third Pole region demands urgent action on multiple fronts. Collaborative efforts involving governments, local communities, conservation organizations, and international bodies are imperative. International cooperation is indispensable in addressing transboundary issues affecting the Eastern Himalayan region. Collaborative agreements between countries sharing these fragile ecosystems are crucial for the sustainable management of shared resources, especially water bodies originating from these mountains.

Moreover, raising global awareness about the significance of this region in climate regulation and biodiversity conservation is vital: even if global warming stops at the 1.5-degree threshold, the consequences for the Third Pole will still be devastating. It calls for coordinated, concerted action to accelerate the renewables net zero transition – not only in India but globally. Only through collective action and a commitment to ecological preservation can the Third Pole and South Asia adapt and thrive in the face of an escalating climate and biodiversity crisis.

Ranjit Barthakur is the Founder of the Balipara Foundation.