Assam Assembly polls: Tracker survey gives BJP 69–74 seats, Congress trails

Guwahati: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on course to secure a third consecutive term in Assam, emerging as the single largest party with a clear majority, according to the latest Tracker Poll conducted by the People’s Pulse Research Organization.

The survey, carried out between November 15 and December 31, 2025, projects the BJP winning between 69 and 74 seats in the 126-member Assam Assembly—well above the 64-seat majority mark. With its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners, including the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), the coalition is expected to touch nearly 90 seats, indicating a decisive mandate amid a fragmented opposition.

People’s Pulse Director Rajan Pandey, who compiled the report, said the findings reflect the BJP’s deepening electoral footprint in the state. “This Tracker Poll captures the pulse of Assam’s electorate at a critical juncture. The BJP’s performance is driven not just by incumbency but by its expanding connect across communities. With the opposition in disarray, the NDA’s path to victory appears clear,” he said.

Seat and Vote Share Projections

According to the poll, the BJP is far ahead of its nearest rival, the Indian National Congress (INC), which is projected to secure 25–29 seats. Among NDA allies, the AGP is expected to win 8–11 seats, while the BPF may bag 8–10 seats, strengthening the coalition’s overall tally.

The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) are projected to win 0–2 seats each. Raijor Dal may secure 1–2 seats, while the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), CPI(M), and independents are each expected to be confined to 0–1 seat.

In terms of vote share, the BJP is projected to poll around 39%, narrowly ahead of the Congress at 37%. While the margin appears slim, the survey notes that Assam’s electoral arithmetic often translates small vote share differences into significant seat advantages. AGP is projected at 7%, BPF at 5.5%, AIUDF at 2.5%, UPPL at 1.2%, with smaller parties and others collectively accounting for the rest.

The report notes that Congress gains are largely attributed to the erosion of AIUDF’s support base, particularly among Muslim voters in Barak Valley and Lower Assam, as seen in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, factors such as delimitation, weak alliance partners, and organisational shortcomings limit the Congress’s ability to convert votes into seats.

Chief Ministerial Preference: Close Contest

The poll’s chief ministerial preference survey indicates a tight race among leading faces. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma leads with 30% support, followed closely by former Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal at 28%. Congress MP and Assam Pradesh Congress Committee president Gaurav Gogoi trails narrowly at 27%.

Other leaders—including Debabrata Saikia, Hagrama Mohilary, Atul Bora, Dilip Saikia, Badruddin Ajmal, and Akhil Gogoi—register marginal support at around 1–3%, while 7% of respondents remain undecided.

The survey notes that while Gogoi’s personal popularity poses a challenge in the CM race, it has not translated into proportionate party support. Sarma’s edge, though slender, is reinforced by strong backing from women voters, including among tribal communities.

BJP Leads on Development and Governance Perception

On broader public sentiment, the BJP enjoys a clear advantage. Around 48% of respondents believe the BJP is better suited to drive Assam’s development, compared to 38% for the Congress. As many as 55% feel the BJP is most likely to form the next government, and an equal proportion believe the party deserves another term.

The poll highlights the NDA’s consistent lead across parameters such as development, welfare delivery, leadership preference, and demographic appeal across age and gender groups. This dominance is attributed to successive electoral victories since 2021, including local body polls, by-elections, autonomous council elections, and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

Opposition Struggles and Community Shifts

The Congress shows marginal recovery, primarily at the expense of a declining AIUDF, which the survey describes as politically isolated. Respondents across Muslim communities reportedly view AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal as self-serving, consolidating Congress’s position as the principal anti-BJP force.

AGP’s independent base continues to shrink outside its alliance with the BJP, while UPPL faces existential challenges after poor performances in recent Bodoland Territorial Region elections. The BJP-BPF rapprochement is expected to yield significant gains in BTAD areas.

Community-wise, the poll records broad-based support for the BJP among caste Assamese, Ahoms (with exceptions in pockets like Sivasagar and Jorhat), OBCs, Hindu Bengalis, and tribal groups including Bodos, Misings, Karbis, and Dimasas. Muslims overwhelmingly favour the Congress, while Tea Tribe voters largely remain with the BJP despite some discontent over unmet demands.

Delimitation a Key Factor

The report identifies the 2023 delimitation exercise as a crucial factor tilting the electoral balance in favour of the BJP by consolidating its core support while marginalising opposition vote banks. Organisational strength, welfare-driven beneficiary politics, and opposition infighting further reinforce the NDA’s advantage.

Summing up, Pandey said, “Assam’s electorate appears to be rewarding stability and delivery. If current trends hold, the BJP is headed for an unprecedented hat-trick in the state.”

The Assam Assembly elections are due next year.